Marktbericht USA Januar 2011

The lending environment has changed quickly, and while activity is far from pre-crisis levels, a new normal appears to be emerging.

Executive Summary

• After a long period of fits and starts, conditions finally seem ripe for an extended recovery in commercial real estate. The recovery is firmly established in the apartment and hotel segments, while the office, retail and industrial sectors are starting to turn around after hitting near-record levels of vacancies. Still, the improvement in market conditions remains dependent on the fragile economy and will probably be inconsistent in coming months.
  
• Rising interest rates could temper optimism about property fundamentals. Historically low interest rates have been a boon to the sector, keeping the cost of capital low for real estate owners and making property returns attractive in comparison to fixed-income instruments. Rates rising too quickly or too high would have a negative impact on property values, which have recovered with unprecedented speed for core assets.
  
• Transaction activity is rising from trough levels, but investor demand for core assets still exceeds the supply available for sale. Demand remains focused on the core and distressed ends of the spectrum. Activity involving assets in the middle will rise this year as financing for secondtier properties becomes more available, banks and special servicers shed bad loans and investors become more confident of a broader recovery in the economy and look for higher yields.
  
• Debt markets are growing healthier by the day, led by the revived CMBS market, which is sprouting new deals after three years of inactivity. Investor demand for CMBS is high, and life companies are actively seeking new loans on high-quality properties. Lenders are beginning to expand beyond core assets.
  
• The bank market remains a mixed bag, with larger banks more likely to have made progress in resolving troubled loans and restarting their lending machines. Regional and local banks remain mostly inactive as they slowly work through defaults. Regulators are not pushing banks to liquidate, prompting a slow-motion resolution of overleveraged assets.
  
• REITs will be hard-pressed to improve on 2010, a year in which they strengthened balance sheets, raised a record amount of capital and posted solid returns, with the FTSE NAREIT Equity REIT Index rising 28%. Still, REITs remain relatively attractive. Their earnings should improve with real estate fundamentals, they have prospects for external growth and are likely to be an attractive target for investors seeking income returns with the potential for appreciation.