Marktbericht Asien Oktober 2011

Asia-Pacific economies maintained growth in the third quarter, albeit at slower rates than the second quarter. The region is bracing for more volatility ahead due to the intensified global financial headwinds.

Executive Summary

Macro Themes

• Asia-Pacific economies maintained growth in the third quarter, albeit at slower rates than the second quarter. The region is bracing for more volatility ahead due to the intensified global financial headwinds.
  
• Consumer prices have been edging up, although inflation has likely peaked and is expected to fall in 2012.
  
• Asia-Pacific real estate transaction volume increased about 7% year-over-year in 3Q11, according to Real Capital Analytics (RCA). However, volume dropped by 25% compared to the second quarter, an indication of investors’ concerns over volatility of global financial markets.
  
• Private debt remains the major source of financing in the region. Financing of commercial real estate remains accessible for high-quality assets.
  The extent of shadow lending in China looks to be exaggerated by the media.
  
• The risk of a hard landing for the g Chinese economy is low. Even though there will be a change of leadership in 2012, political and economic stability remain atop the agenda for the Chinese government.
  
• Asian currencies took a beating against the US dollar in the third quarter. Further depreciation of Asian currencies will likely make exported goods more affordable, although it could fuel domestic inflation.
  

Implications and Outlook for Commercial Real Estate

• Overall demand for office space in the region is healthy, leading to high occupancies and rising rents and property values. However, office markets - such as Hong Kong and Singapore – that are more exposed to global uncertainty recorded weaker demand in 3Q11 from financial institutions.
  
• Investors remain keenly interested in shopping centres in markets such as China, Hong Kong and Singapore.
  
• Positive trends on urbanisation, favourable population growth and the increasing level of wealth underpin demand for residential sectors.
  
• Banks are selectively increasing lending, with financing relatively easy to secure for high-quality assets. However, developers and asset managers with large development commitments and pipelines are significantly exposed.