Marktbericht Asien August 2011

Asian economies generally grew at a strong pace in the first half of 2011, although momentum moderated in the second quarter and external financial headwinds could pose some risk to the region going forward.

Executive Summary

Key Thermes

• Asian economies generally grew at a strong pace in the first half of 2011, although momentum moderated in the second quarter. External financial headwinds could pose some risk to the region going forward.
  
• Inflation trended up in 2Q11, challenging central banks to balance economic growth and higher interest rates.
  
• Real estate transaction volume in the region grew by about 8% year-over-year in the first half,according to Real Capital Analytics (RCA). Volume rose in Singapore, South Korea and Australia but shrank in Japan.
  
• Banks are selectively increasing lending, with financing relatively easy to secure for high-quality assets. Government policy in China, however, has created uncertainty in financing in that country and Asia’s CMBS market remains dormant.
  

Implications and Outlook for Commercial Real Estate

• Healthy demand and high occupancies have boosted rents and property values of offices in much of the region, with further upside likely barring any serious external shocks. Laggards include Tokyo, where demand for space is weak, and Seoul, which is facing significant additions to supply.
  
• Investors remain keenly interested in shopping centres in markets such as China, Hong Kong and Singapore. Because much of the stock is in the hands of long term owners, demand for greenfield development sites is also high.
  
• Acquisition yields for commercial properties are likely to compress further, but how much and when will depend on the rate of inflation and how much investors expect interest rates to increase.
  
• Government measures to dampen house prices could prompt values to fall in places such as China, Hong Kong and Singapore. Material corrections in housing values could have a severely negative impact on commercial real estate markets.